Shibbir Ahmed, United Nations, New York: Who will become the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? The question has become one of the most closely watched issues in international diplomacy. The second term of current Secretary-General António Guterres ends on December 31, 2026. As a result, intense diplomatic activity is underway in New York over who will lead the United Nations beginning January 1, 2027.

Eight candidates are currently in the race to become the next Secretary-General. They are Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa and Ivonne Baki, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and former UN official Olara Otunnu of Uganda.

Grynspan Leads in First Straw Poll

On July 30, the 15 members of the UN Security Council participated in the first informal “straw poll.” The vote was not a formal election but rather a confidential process designed to gauge the level of support or opposition among Security Council members for each candidate.

In the first round, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan ranked first with 10 “encourage” votes. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett received 9, while Argentina’s Rafael Grossi received 7.

The results, however, cannot be considered a final election outcome. Rather, they provide an important indication of the candidates’ initial standing in the race. On August 21, the Security Council is conducting a second informal straw poll. The international community is closely watching whether the candidates’ positions change in the second round.

Who Is Rebeca Grynspan?

Rebeca Grynspan, who led the first round of voting, is a former Vice President of Costa Rica. She currently serves as Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

She has extensive experience in economics, development, international cooperation and multilateral diplomacy. The most significant political aspect of her candidacy is that, if elected, she would become the first woman Secretary-General in the nearly 80-year history of the United Nations.

Given her background and policy positions, Grynspan is also viewed as a potential “continuity candidate”—someone who could maintain continuity with the UN’s existing multilateral framework and approach.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett: A Strong Challenger

Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett finished second in the first straw poll, just one vote behind Grynspan. A former Foreign Minister of Guyana and currently the country’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Rodrigues-Birkett’s candidacy has received particular attention in the Caribbean region. If elected, she would not only become the UN’s first woman Secretary-General but also the first Secretary-General from the Caribbean. She has emphasized climate change, development financing and bringing the interests of small states closer to the center of international decision-making.

Rafael Grossi: Another Major Contender

Argentina’s Rafael Mariano Grossi finished third in the first round. He currently serves as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). His experience in nuclear security, international crises and wartime diplomacy distinguishes him from many of the other candidates. He has played a direct diplomatic role in complex international issues involving Ukraine and Iran. With seven “encourage” votes in the first straw poll, Grossi remains an important contender in the race.

Five Other Candidates

Former Chilean President and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet is another prominent candidate. Former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister and former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa is also considered an important contender because of her extensive experience in multilateral diplomacy.

Former Senegalese President Macky Sall is participating as one of Africa’s most prominent political figures. Former UN Under-Secretary-General Olara Otunnu of Uganda has emphasized UN reform and ethical leadership. He has argued that structural reforms are necessary to make the organization more effective and efficient.

The newest candidate in the race is Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne Baki. Her candidacy formally emerged on August 18, meaning she was not included in the first straw poll held in July.

Possibility of the First Woman Secretary-General

One of the most historic aspects of this year’s selection process is the strong presence of women candidates. Five of the eight candidates are women. Since the founding of the United Nations, no woman has ever served as Secretary-General. Therefore, if Grynspan, Rodrigues-Birkett, Bachelet, Espinosa or Baki is elected, the organization will enter a new chapter in its history.

The strong performances of Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett in the first straw poll have further strengthened the possibility of the UN having its first woman Secretary-General.

Is It Latin America and the Caribbean’s Turn?

Another notable feature of this year’s race is the strong presence of candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean. Grynspan is from Costa Rica, Grossi from Argentina, Bachelet from Chile, and Espinosa and Baki from Ecuador. Rodrigues-Birkett represents Guyana.

There is no formal mandatory regional rotation system for selecting the UN Secretary-General. However, regional balance has traditionally played an important political role in the selection process. As a result, the possibility of a candidate from Latin America or the Caribbean emerging as the next Secretary-General is receiving considerable diplomatic attention.

Where Does the Real Power Lie?

The number of votes received in the first straw poll is important, but an even more critical factor is the position of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France are the five permanent members, and each has veto power.

Even if a candidate receives sufficient support within the Security Council, a veto from any one of the five permanent members could block that candidate’s nomination. For this reason, despite receiving the highest number of votes in the first round, Rebeca Grynspan cannot yet be considered the certain winner.

Instead, future straw polls will be closely watched to determine which candidates continue to receive “encourage” votes and which begin to face increasing “discourage” votes.

A Challenging World Awaits the New Secretary-General

The next Secretary-General will take office in 2027 at a time when the United Nations itself faces numerous challenges. The war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, the Gaza crisis, nuclear security, climate change, refugee crises, global economic inequality and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are among the major issues the new Secretary-General will have to confront.

At the same time, pressure is growing for the United Nations to address its financial difficulties, administrative costs and the need to make the organization more effective.

Ivonne Baki has recently emphasized the importance of preventing conflicts before they begin and reforming the United Nations. Olara Otunnu has also stressed the need to restore the organization’s effectiveness and ethical leadership.

When Will the New Secretary-General Be Known?

Following several rounds of informal voting and diplomatic consultations, the Security Council will formally recommend one candidate for the position. The UN General Assembly will then appoint that candidate as Secretary-General.

The process could involve several rounds of voting and negotiations. The final decision could come between late September and October, although the process could take longer if the members fail to reach a consensus.

So, Who Is Leading the Race?

At this stage, it is impossible to say with certainty who will become the next UN Secretary-General. However, based on the results of the first Security Council straw poll, Rebeca Grynspan is currently the leading candidate. Her closest challenger is Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, followed by Rafael Grossi.

But the real contest is not simply about the number of votes a candidate receives. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on who can gain the acceptance of all five permanent members of the Security Council.

If a woman ultimately secures the necessary consensus, the United Nations could witness a historic moment: for the first time in its nearly 80-year history, a woman would take charge of the world’s largest multilateral organization.

For now, all eyes are on the second Security Council straw poll. Its outcome could provide a clearer picture of whether Rebeca Grynspan is truly moving closer to becoming the next UN Secretary-General—or whether another candidate could emerge at the final stage as the consensus choice.